by Hamid Dabashi, Special to CNN
(CNN) -- In a recent article published both in the Washington Post and the Guardian, Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty reported that according to their "nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote ... Ahmadinejad [was] leading by a more than 2-to-1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election."
That may or may not be the case, but the abiding wisdom of Aesop's fable of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" or its Persian version, "The Lying Shepherd," has now made any such Monday-morning quarterbacking an academic exercise in futility.
The assumption that the government has rigged the election has become a "social fact" that millions of Iranians believe. On the basis of that belief, they have put their lives on the line, with reported casualties of dozens injured and at least one, perhaps up to nine, people killed.
Please click here to read the complete article.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Poll Indicating Legitimacy of Ahmadinejad’s Victory Called into Question
Analysis by Sharif University alum, TehranBureau
[TEHRAN BUREAU] The only major doubt in the western media over significant fraud in Iran’s presidential election came with the publication of poll conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow, a non-profit group. The poll’s findings – which had put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad comfortably ahead of Mir-Hossein Mousavi – were interpreted by some western commentators as an indication that Ahmadinejad’s “victory” may have been legitimate.
In fact the poll, while it had interesting findings on public opinion, cannot be taken as a prediction of the election result and indeed was not presented in this way by organizers, Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty. Several limitations regarding the survey’s methodology have been discussed in the last few days. Notably, it was conducted before the election season even started in Iran. Interviews began on May 11th, a month before the election, and ended on May 20th. Although public opinion in western elections is generally set by such a late stage, a month is a long enough period for a drastic shift in the popularity of candidates in Iran. With the absence of solid political parties and government control of public media, the election season is very short and limited to the few weeks before the election.
Please click here to read the complete analysis.
[TEHRAN BUREAU] The only major doubt in the western media over significant fraud in Iran’s presidential election came with the publication of poll conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow, a non-profit group. The poll’s findings – which had put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad comfortably ahead of Mir-Hossein Mousavi – were interpreted by some western commentators as an indication that Ahmadinejad’s “victory” may have been legitimate.
In fact the poll, while it had interesting findings on public opinion, cannot be taken as a prediction of the election result and indeed was not presented in this way by organizers, Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty. Several limitations regarding the survey’s methodology have been discussed in the last few days. Notably, it was conducted before the election season even started in Iran. Interviews began on May 11th, a month before the election, and ended on May 20th. Although public opinion in western elections is generally set by such a late stage, a month is a long enough period for a drastic shift in the popularity of candidates in Iran. With the absence of solid political parties and government control of public media, the election season is very short and limited to the few weeks before the election.
Please click here to read the complete analysis.
Struggle within Iranian elite
Pepe Escobar, theRealNews network
Pepe Escobar: Two camps locked in fierce struggle, as Revolutionary Guard stages an election "coup"
Please click here if you want to watch the video
Pepe Escobar: Two camps locked in fierce struggle, as Revolutionary Guard stages an election "coup"
Please click here if you want to watch the video
Iran protests: live
guardian.co.uk
As the Iranian authorities continue their crackdown on opposition rallies, foreign journalists, and the internet, what next for the protest movement? Follow live updates on the aftermath of Iran's disputed presidential election.
Please click here to read the complete news.
As the Iranian authorities continue their crackdown on opposition rallies, foreign journalists, and the internet, what next for the protest movement? Follow live updates on the aftermath of Iran's disputed presidential election.
Please click here to read the complete news.
Polling Predicted Intimidation -- and Not Necessarily Ahmadinejad's Victory
by Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight
Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty, who work for a nonprofit group called Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, are out with a comment in today's Washington Post which claims that their poll of 1,001 Iranians conducted last month predicted Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory.
Ballen and Doherty are doing admirable and important work. Regular readers will know how difficult it is to conduct a good poll in the United States. Take that difficulty to the fifth power, and you'll have some sense for how difficult it is to conduct a good poll in Iran.
Unfortunately, while the poll itself may be valid, Ballen and Doherty's characterization of it is misleading. Rather than giving one more confidence in the official results, the poll raises more questions than it resolves.
Ballen and Doherty wrote in the Post that their poll showed "Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election." But let's look at what their poll (.pdf) actually said:
To read the complete article, please click here
Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty, who work for a nonprofit group called Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, are out with a comment in today's Washington Post which claims that their poll of 1,001 Iranians conducted last month predicted Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory.
Ballen and Doherty are doing admirable and important work. Regular readers will know how difficult it is to conduct a good poll in the United States. Take that difficulty to the fifth power, and you'll have some sense for how difficult it is to conduct a good poll in Iran.
Unfortunately, while the poll itself may be valid, Ballen and Doherty's characterization of it is misleading. Rather than giving one more confidence in the official results, the poll raises more questions than it resolves.
Ballen and Doherty wrote in the Post that their poll showed "Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election." But let's look at what their poll (.pdf) actually said:
To read the complete article, please click here
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